Every military operation seen from any temporal perspective, be it minute-to-minute or first aggression to last shot, can be described as a series of waves: troops advance; troops rest; defenses are built; defenses are overrun; tactics are planned; tactics are executed, etc.
I suspect that every relative pause in insurgent momentum in Iraq will be spun by Oil Club Shrub as the final insurgent defeat. But I suspect that each pause will be followed by new insurgent action. Granted...one action must ultimately be the last one. Granted...each may be weaker than the one before until the insurgency fails. But there is a 50/50 chance at best that the "last act" will be not the final insurgent shot fired, but rather the final American soldier withdrawn in Vietnam-style "'peace' with honor."
And getting to that event could take years, especially if Club Shrub continues to rule America, ever more isolating us from the UN and our allies.
The Iraqis have firearms; tens of thousands of them. The Iraqis have anti-armor weapons, mostly RPGs, as we see repeatedly on television. Today they shot down an Apache helicopter with a SAM. They have TNT. Therefore, the population despite our efforts was never even close to sufficiently unarmed. Disarming them now is impossible. IMPORTANTLY: The borders of Iraq are more open now that during Saddam's reign, greatly increasing the chances of yet more arms trickling if not pouring in. The Shiite-Sunni alliance against American occupying troops also of course involves Saddam's former military, including probably special forces veterans from Desert Storm and the war against Iran.
(God, why are we there? Why but for the arrogance of power and the stupidity of the American people and the complicity of the media did we invade in the first place, in direct violation of international law? We have unnecessarily set human history on a new unstable course. It should be al-Qaeda who is seen as the great destabilizer, because of 9/11. But who would have thought that we would invade IRAQ instead of going after al-Qaeda, and as a result eclipse terrorism itself as a force of destabilization? Terrorism against the West and America's aggression in Iraq are a horrific combination of realities, each with very violent consequences; each will result in a million gallons of human blood shed worldwide.)
American combat deaths during this uprising have been very few relative to the ferocity of the engagements. This could suggest insurgent ineffectiveness. Will they get better bearings overtime, as the mujahedeen eventually did against Soviet invaders in Afghanistan? But Iraqi casualties are in the 100's and 100's. That will have consequences later. Revenge will be sought by a 1,000 families. Revenge will be taken by many of them, against our young men and women in uniform.
Again to Jessica Stern (see my 4/7 post), this time the words of Dr. Hani al-Sibai, the director of the London-based Al-Maqrizi Center for Historical Studies. He is a radical, anti-US, and thus very biased; but his words shouldn't be ignored:
"When the United States occupied Iraq, the border was actually uncontrolled." Iraq, he says, "is currently a battlefield and a fertile soil for every Islamic movement that views jihad as a priority." He emphasizes that Iraq is a "better place" than Afghanistan for waging jihad "in terms of the language, features of the people, and popular sympathy -- whether in Iraq's Sunni regions or its neighboring countries." He notes that "the continuation of the anti-occupation resistance will produce several groups that might later merge into one large group." Very few of the participants in the Iraqi "jihad" are members of al-Qaida, he says. "Nevertheless, the role of al-Qaida and its sympathizers in Iraq is more like the salt of the earth and it's reminiscent of the role of Arabs in Afghanistan who lifted the spirit of the Afghan people, who fought and sacrificed thousands of martyrs." He describes a new network of Salafi and other jihadist Sunni groups that formed five months after the occupation began. The network consists of mujahedeen, ulema, and political and military experts, he says, together with a number of jihadist factions from the north and south that previously operated separately. He concludes, "Even if the U.S. forces capture all leaders of al-Qaida or kill them all, the idea of expelling the occupiers and nonbelievers from the Arabian Peninsula and all the countries of Islam will not die."