If Obama were a woman or Hillary black

New York’s Democratic Primary is on "Super Tuesday," February 5th, and I'm still undecided between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama.

On one hand, some of the polls scare me: they show Hillary doing much better than Obama does against any potential GOP nominee, including Sen. McCain, in key states like Florida and Ohio.

On the other hand, I tell myself that Obama might draw an amazing wave of first-time voters and voters registered Independent who would help him win in November’s general election.

But I'm not sure.

From the pro-Clinton angle: There are many hard-working, progressive Democrats who are legitimately concerned about the lack of specifics in Obama’s lofty rhetoric, or the almost mimicry-like quality of the delivery of his speech, which do not so much evoke Martin Luther King, Jr. as imitate him. Also, Obama’s not performed spectacularly well in the debates. What is more, the Clinton’s can fight dirty and fight to win, and Hillary Clinton is probably better positioned to take on the gargantuan rightwing noise machine than is Obama. I think many, many Democrats’ hearts are with Obama but their heads are with Hillary. Many Democrats want to believe that Obama could win in November, but they genuinely fear that a person of color just cannot win in America. The question becomes: how much of a risk will Democrats take on February 5th, will hope outweigh pragmatism?

From the pro-Obama angle: There are many hard-working, progressive Democrats who been very turned off by the way Sen. Clinton, candidate, and Pres. Clinton, powerful spouse, have become mega-candidate: "The Clinton’s." Increasingly, it’s no longer just Hillary’s campaign; it's become a co-candidacy and raised the potential of a co-presidency. This is not good in an era of genuine "Clinton fatigue." Additionally, the Clinton campaign has been pretty nasty to Obama. They were very disingenuous—intellectually dishonest—when they attacked Obama for supposedly endorsing Reagan’s legacy. He clearly noted that the Republicans articulated big ideas and inspired in the early 1970's and 1980's in a way Democrats failed to. That is simply true--a statement of fact. Obama didn’t say those ideas were good, however, or that what was accomplished through (and sometimes under cover of) inspiring sentiments had good outcomes: massive debt, making government the enemy, and illegal covert operations being just three of them. The Republicans invested (literally, with talent backed by money for think tanks, publications, and college groups) in those ideas, in communicating them, and finding a great communicator who represented the ideas with a friendly face.

Of course, it also has to be noted that before the issue of Obama mentioning Reagan, Obama’s surrogates were very disingenuous—intellectually dishonest—when they accused Sen. Clinton of failing to acknowledge Martin Luther King Jr.’s legacy merely because she noted that President Lyndon Johnson was, in fact, the person who signed the Civil Rights Act. He signed it and it cost him and the Democrats politically to do so. This is not to diminish the fact that working towards great achievements like the Civil Rights Act cost M. L. King, Jr. far more over a far longer time of struggle, and eventually his very life!

I am not sure who I’ll vote for. And it's impossible to keep race and gender out of the picture. A black person becoming president would, I admit, in my eyes seem sort of like the tardy validation of Emancipation that the heinous era of Jim Crow laws interrupted, reversed even. On the other hand, a woman becoming president would in my eyes seem a tardy validation of women's enfranchisement but a simple catching up, for goodness sake: the UK, Germany, Israel, have all had women political leaders running their country, as have India, Canada, Finland, Argentina, Chile, the Philippines, Iceland, Ireland, and several more.

Yes, I know of the policy differences between Hillary and Obama. The differences aren't great compared to any Republican candidate for president, and frankly both Hillary and Obama are moderates--and, frankly, more moderate on many issues than am I. So in the end, I don't think policy matters will decide it for me. It's going to be a gut instinct, I think, and may yet be informed between now and February 5th by conversations with friends.

We shall see.